We mistake selection factors for outcomes, like assuming professional swimmers have perfect bodies due to training, rather than recognizing they are good swimmers because of their physiques. This illusion extends to education and happiness, misleading us to mimic behaviors without recognizing inherent selection factors. Dobelli explains, 'Whenever we confuse selection factors with results, we fall prey to what Taleb calls the swimmer’s body illusion.' | Rolf Dobelli | The Art of Thinking Clearly

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The Swimmer’s Body Illusion: Confusing Selection Factors with Results

We mistake selection factors for outcomes, like assuming professional swimmers have perfect bodies due to training, rather than recognizing they are good swimmers because of their physiques. This illusion extends to education and happiness, misleading us to mimic behaviors without recognizing inherent selection factors. Dobelli explains, 'Whenever we confuse selection factors with results, we fall prey to what Taleb calls the swimmer’s body illusion.'

-- Rolf Dobelli