We often see only the successful cases and ignore the countless failures, leading us to overestimate our chances of success. For example, we see rock stars and assume we can achieve similar success without considering the many who failed. Dobelli states, 'Survivorship bias means this: people systematically overestimate their chances of success.' This bias distorts reality in business, investing, and personal aspirations. | Rolf Dobelli | The Art of Thinking Clearly

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Survivorship Bias: Recognizing Invisible Failures

We often see only the successful cases and ignore the countless failures, leading us to overestimate our chances of success. For example, we see rock stars and assume we can achieve similar success without considering the many who failed. Dobelli states, 'Survivorship bias means this: people systematically overestimate their chances of success.' This bias distorts reality in business, investing, and personal aspirations.

-- Rolf Dobelli