Rolf Dobelli

Survivorship Bias: Recognizing Invisible Failures

We often see only the successful cases and ignore the countless failures, leading us to overestimate our chances of success. For example, we see rock stars and assume we can achieve similar success without considering the many who failed. Dobelli states, 'Survivorship bias means this: people systematically overestimate their chances of success.' This bias distorts reality in business, investing, and personal aspirations.

The Danger of Groupthink: Suppressing Dissent

Groupthink occurs when a group makes poor decisions to maintain harmony, as seen in the Bay of Pigs invasion. Intelligent people fail to question assumptions, leading to significant failures. Dobelli notes, 'If the others are of the same opinion, any dissenting view must be wrong.' This tendency can derail business strategies and historical decisions.

The Swimmer’s Body Illusion: Confusing Selection Factors with Results

We mistake selection factors for outcomes, like assuming professional swimmers have perfect bodies due to training, rather than recognizing they are good swimmers because of their physiques. This illusion extends to education and happiness, misleading us to mimic behaviors without recognizing inherent selection factors. Dobelli explains, 'Whenever we confuse selection factors with results, we fall prey to what Taleb calls the swimmer’s body illusion.'

Loss Aversion: The Power of Negative Stimuli

People are more motivated by the fear of loss than by potential gain. For instance, a breast self-examination campaign focusing on the negative consequences of not performing examinations was more effective. Dobelli states, 'Emotionally, a loss ‘weighs’ about twice that of a similar gain.' This bias influences business decisions and personal risk management.

The Illusion of Control: Overestimating Influence

We often believe we have more control over events than we actually do. This illusion of control can lead to overconfidence and poor decision-making. Dobelli illustrates this with examples from gambling and business, where people think their actions influence outcomes more than they do. 'You control less than you think,' he warns, urging us to recognize the limits of our influence.

The Halo Effect: Overvaluing Based on One Trait

The halo effect leads us to overvalue people or products based on a single characteristic, like attractiveness. This bias affects hiring, advertising, and personal judgments. Dobelli explains, 'The halo effect clouds our view, just as it does the view of journalists, educators, and consumers.' Recognizing this bias helps us make more balanced evaluations.

The Law of Small Numbers: Misinterpreting Statistics

We often draw big conclusions from small datasets, leading to misguided decisions. Small stores showing extreme theft rates are due to their size, not location. Dobelli notes, 'The location isn’t the deciding factor.' Understanding this helps us interpret data more accurately and avoid errors in judgment.

Question Your Success Assumptions

Whenever you see success stories, remind yourself that there are many invisible failures behind the scenes. Ask yourself: 'Am I seeing the complete picture, or just the survivors?'

Evaluate Selection Factors Accurately

Before mimicking someone's success, identify if their results come from selection factors rather than solely their practices. Remember, 'Swimmers have great bodies because of their physiques, not just their training.'

Appoint a Devil’s Advocate

To combat groupthink, designate someone in your team to play the role of devil’s advocate. This person’s job is to question assumptions and present dissenting views to ensure all angles are considered before making a decision.

Highlight Potential Losses to Motivate Action

Use the concept of loss aversion in communications and marketing. Focus on what people stand to lose rather than what they will gain to more effectively encourage desired behaviors.

Recognize and Account for Luck

Understand that luck plays a significant role in success in many fields. This awareness can lead to more humility and better risk management in decision-making.

Survivorship bias means this: people systematically overestimate their chances of success.

Whenever we confuse selection factors with results, we fall prey to what Taleb calls the swimmer’s body illusion.

If you think you have discovered a pattern, first consider it pure chance.

Rational decision-making requires you to forget about the costs incurred to date.

First give, then take.

The mountain of additional information did not lead to a better decision.

Emotionally, a loss ‘weighs’ about twice that of a similar gain.

The halo effect clouds our view, just as it does the view of journalists, educators, and consumers.

Risk is not directly visible. Therefore, always consider what the alternative paths are.

The first traits outshine the rest.

Absence is much harder to detect than presence.

In other words, the company was rewarding luck rather than skill.

We make decisions based on our emotions more than we think.

We are often distracted by interesting things.

We distort information so that it fits our beliefs and opinions.

I usually listen to the crowd, and I will obey the majority so as not to be left out.

Survivorship bias means this: people systematically overestimate their chances of success.

Whenever we confuse selection factors with results, we fall prey to what Taleb calls the swimmer’s body illusion.

If you think you have discovered a pattern, first consider it pure chance.

Rational decision-making requires you to forget about the costs incurred to date.

First give, then take.

The mountain of additional information did not lead to a better decision.

Emotionally, a loss ‘weighs’ about twice that of a similar gain.

The halo effect clouds our view, just as it does the view of journalists, educators, and consumers.

Risk is not directly visible. Therefore, always consider what the alternative paths are.

The first traits outshine the rest.

Absence is much harder to detect than presence.

In other words, the company was rewarding luck rather than skill.